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Dernière mise à jour : Mai 2018

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ASF challenge: 1st international challenge in epidemiological modelling in animal health, applied to African swine fever

ASF challenge
The BIOEPAR DYNAMO team has organized the first international challenge in animal health modelling, ASF challenge, focusing on a scenario for the introduction, spread and control of African Swine Fever (ASF), which has ravaged Asian pig farms and made recent incursions in Belgium and Germany.

A group of organizers  (Pauline Ezanno and Sébastien Picault, BIOEPAR and Timothée Vergne, ENVT), assisted by two trainees (Matthieu Mancini, INSA Lyon and Servane Bareille, Oniris/Univ. Rennes I) produced simulated epidemiological data from a mechanistic model at the interface between domestic pig farms and wildlife (wild boar).

Like a real epidemic, these artificial data were communicated at regular intervals to six team of modellers (including one co-animated by Gaël Beaunée, BIOEPAR) who had to predict the evolution of the epidemic and recommend control measures.

The aim of this exercise is to mobilize contrasting modelling methods, to identify their strengths or limitations, to determine the most accurate method or combinations of methods, and thus to strengthen the responsiveness of modellers to respond to new epidemics, possibly in a collaborative manner.

The « game » phase, which began at the end of August 2020, ended in mid-January 2021. The analysis of the methods used and the comparison of the participants’ predictions are ongoing and will lead to communications and publications in the course of 2021.

Follow : @AsfMod —

IMAGE : Merry Island, the fictitious territory in which the ASF epidemic is taking place.