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Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is transmitted by mosquitoes, mainly to cattle, causing waves of abortions and high mortality in younger animals. It is a zoonosis, the severe form of which can be fatal to humans. RVF is on the WHO's list of priority emerging diseases. A mathematical model has been developed to estimate the epidemic potential of RVF in northern Senegal, a region that has been regularly affected since the late 1980s. It is in September that the introduction of the virus can cause the most secondary cases and allow an epidemic to start. The locations most at risk of becoming an outbreak vary from year to year. In these at-risk locations, increasing cattle immunity would be more effective in reducing virus transmission than increasing small ruminant immunity. On the other hand, mosquito densities are such that reducing their population is not a viable way of reducing risk. This work will be completed by integrating the spatio-temporal transmission of the virus via seasonal animal mobility. Testing climatic scenarios linked to global changes would also make it possible to anticipate the risk at Europe's doorstep.

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Mapping the epidemic potential of Rift Valley fever in northern Senegal requires the combination of complementary input data: rainfall, temperature, vector population dynamics (Aedes vexans arabiensis, Culex poicilipes and Culex tritaeniorhyncus), and animal density (cattle, small ruminants).