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24, chemin de Borde Rouge –Auzeville – CS52627
31326 Castanet Tolosan CEDEX - France

Dernière mise à jour : Mai 2018

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Post-doctoral position: Evaluation of the market consequences of trade restrictions in livestock: application to bovine animal diseases.

1 year post-doctoral position

Societal context and economic issues:

Epidemics raise many concerns, not only for human health but also for animals. In recent years, the prevalence of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in ruminants and wildlife has been increasing in France and elsewhere in Europe. Its control remains a permanent objective for public authorities, as if it were to spread on a large scale, this disease would raise major public health concerns, which would lead to strong trade restrictions in order to stop its spread. In addition to its health implications, trade restrictions can have major and complex effects on the economic sectors related to livestock and animal production. In this context, the objective of this post-doctoral fellowship is to analyze the effect of the loss of bTB-free status on French and European markets. The loss of free status in a given territory leads to restrictions on the movement of live animals and animal products (trade bans, loss of market to certain third countries, etc.). Such a shock is likely to disrupt the economic equilibrium of the affected animal sectors, in a perimeter much wider than that of the infected herds. This shock potentially entails significant costs for the entire agricultural and food chain. These costs are measured in the short term in terms of loss of cash flow, income and employment, and in the longer run in terms of investment costs and adaptation costs to the new health and commercial context. Their repercussion may extend in fine to the whole economy, from specific production sectors to various demand sectors.

Post-doctoral scientific project:

The post-doctoral fellow will aim to model the markets of the bovine sector in order to evaluate the global costs of the disease for all the actors of the bovine sectors (milk and dairy). This research will be based on dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling, with the objective of simulating market shocks (in this case, the restrictions applied to areas that have lost their free status) and quantifying their effects on all market sectors. 

The objective of the modeling is to measure the economic impact of the loss of tuberculosis-free status. Specifically, the analysis will quantify these economic impacts:

  • Effects on income and employment in the markets for bovine products (farms, food industries, retail, international trade)
  • Cost of additional measures induced by the loss of status (monitoring, additional tests for trade...)
  • Short and long term impacts will be differentiated

This research will thus aim to analyze the economic consequences and management of bTB in France. In particular, the modeling will seek to reveal :

  • The impact of regional zoning of sanitary restrictions
  • The costs of supplying and transporting animals between regions and internationally
  • The dynamics of investment in the sectors
  • The public cost related to measures for the sectors in case of loss of free status

Location: The post-doctoral fellowship will preferably take place in Nantes, within the UMR BIOEPAR. Regular exchanges with the UMR SMART-LERECO (Rennes) will be planned, both for the constitution of databases and to exchange on modeling choices. The post-doctorate will be supervised by Arnaud Rault.

Qualifications : Strong skills in economics are wanted. Knowledge of agricultural markets, livestock sectors, and skills in market modeling (GAMS) would be an advantage.

Contact: Candidates should send a dossier consisting of a letter of motivation, a CV, the doctoral report, and any published articles to before May 31, 2021. For any additional information, feel free to send an email to this address.

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