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24, chemin de Borde Rouge -Auzeville - CS52627 31326 Castanet Tolosan cedex - France

Last update: May 2021

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Evaluation of the epidemiological effectiveness of control strategies

The objective of modelling at the scale of a metapopulation is both to better identify the key parameters involved in the spread of pathogens between herds and also to predict ex-ante the expected efficacy of different disease control strategies at the population level.

Work carried out during the period 2006-2010

With regard to the methodological-centric approach, the main work concerned :

  • Estimation of transmission parameters by Bayesian approach (applied to Coxiella burnetii infection in cattle) 
  • The impact of Markov assumptions in epidemiological models 
  • The influence of the transmission function in epidemiological models on the simulation of the spread of a pathogen 
  • The singular perturbation approach to reduce the process represented in a model (applied to bovine viral diarrhea virus) 
  • Global sensitivity analysis to study the outputs from epidemiological models (applied to bovine viral diarrhea virus and contagious bovine pleuropneumonia in cattle and Salmonella carriage in pigs) 

Concerning the pathogen/system-centric approach, the main work concerned :

  • Characterization of the contact structure generated by animal movements (applied to cattle in Brittany)
  • The spread of bovine viral diarrhoea virus in a metapopulation of dairy cattle herds
  • Quantitative risk assessment of food-borne zoonoses applied to pig slaughterhouses 
  • Identification of key control points and evaluation of control strategies :
    • bovine viral diarrhoea virus infection in dairy cattle herds 
    • of Mycobacteirum avium paratuberculosis infection in dairy cattle herds
    • of Coxiella burnetii infection in dairy cattle

Ongoing Projects

The work carried out by the MODEC team on metapopulation-scale modelling is aimed at predicting the a priori effectiveness of control strategies at the population level, and more specifically :

  • Control of Salmonella infection (Modec_salmonella link) in pigs at the production chain level (contact: Catherine Belloc) and of Mycobacterium avium paratuberculosis infection in cattle at the regional level (contact: Pauline Ezanno).
  • The evaluation of different strategies for the vaccine control of Catarrhal Ovine Fever virus infection in cattle (Contact: Pauline Ezanno)
  • Evaluation of different vector population control strategies, through the development of a model of mosquito population dynamics integrating meteorological criteria and vector site location) adaptable to other vector populations (e.g. Culicoides) (Contact: Pauline Ezanno)

Work carried out during the period 2006-2010